Saturday, January 26, 2013

Defining absurdity.

Note: Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell has declined to support his party's new electoral vote bill. My overall point still stands.

Until the 1830s, the British House of Commons drew its members from districts drawn centuries earlier. Given natural population shifts, migration, industrialization, and the like, until they finally got around to fixing it in 1832, the boundaries were so antiquated that some abandoned villages were sending 2 MPs to London, while industrial hubs like Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, and Bradford were left completely unrepresented. The most odious of these districts were the infamous "rotten boroughs" and "pocket boroughs," where the voting population was either small enough to be bribed, or only consisted of a single landholder who was assured election. The overall effect of this system was that aristocrats and rural Tory landowners were able to hold an inordinate amount of power, and edge out middle-class urban liberals.

The U.S. today isn't nearly that bad. But in some ways we're getting there.

Virginia Republicans are putting forward a new bill that would grant electoral votes based on congressional districts rather than overall popular vote. Maine and Nebraska already do this, but Virginia goes even further by granting the 2 additional votes (the ones representing senators) to the winner of the congressional district count rather than the winner of the whole state. Similar bills are being pushed in other Republican-controlled swing states, though they stick to the Maine/Nebraska model.

If every state had the Maine/Nebraska rules in November, Mitt Romney would have beaten Barack Obama 273 to 262, despite Obama's 4-point popular vote victory.

Granted, this assumes every state would have had them in place, which is unlikely to happen, and if every state did, it would have allowed Obama to shave some votes off of some Republican states too. But it's clear that the net advantage would have been Republican, despite Obama's comfortable popular vote victory.

Ultimately, the source of the problem comes from the current congressional district lines, which in many key states are gerrymandered to the point of silliness. Thanks to state-level GOP victories in 2010, Republicans redrew already-conservative district lines to give them a staunch advantage. These proved highly effective in November:

• In Pennsylvania, Obama won by 5 points, and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey won by more than 9. But Democrats only won 5 of the 18 House seats.

• In Florida, Obama won by a razor-thin 1 point, though Sen. Bill Nelson won handily with an 11-point lead. Still, Democrats only picked up 10 of 27 House seats.

• In Ohio, Obama won by 3 points, and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by 6. Democrats only won 4 of 16 House seats.

• In Michigan, Obama won by nearly 10 points, and Sen. Debbie Stabenow by 16. Democrats only won 5 out of 14 House seats.

Nationwide, even though nearly 1.4 million more voters picked Democratic candidates over Republican ones, the GOP maintained a respectable House majority of 234 seats to the Democrats' 201. It's not at all hard to understand why the Republicans would want to base the presidential election on this sort of system.

I'd be lying if I said I don't care that the Republicans are the ones doing this, because that's probably a great deal of what is bugging me. But even that aside, is this not a little absurd? If we are going to pride ourselves on being the beacon of democracy, should our government not adhere to some basic democratic and majoritarian principles?

The thing is, these bills are perfectly constitutional. States have the right to pick their electors however they choose (Democratic-Republicans and Federalists actually tried to use this to their advantage in the 1800 election). And aside from some basic civil rights provisions, states more or less have the right to apportion their congressional districts however they choose.

The Founders probably thought the Electoral College was a good idea. But they also thought all sorts of things were good ideas that we now think are crazy (it was 1787, after all). It's instances like these that increasingly show how silly our electoral systems are, and how we need to seriously look at changing them. The very fact that the Republicans feel the need to alter the electoral vote in their favor should say something about the system; the very real possibility that Romney could have won the popular vote without winning the electoral vote should be reason enough to get rid of the thing altogether.

We're a long way from returning to the age of the rotten borough. But as long as states can gerrymander their districts to so blatantly favor particular parties, and as long as the Electoral College even allows the possibility of such grossly unrepresentative elections, we're skewing our democracy and our political dialogue in the same direction. I've been to Ohio and Florida; they're both very nice places. But they aren't any more American than Minnesota, Idaho, Oregon, Tennessee, or any of the other 40ish non-swing states. Nor are rural conservative Rust Belt voters more entitled to a piece of the congressional pie than urban and suburban voters.

One of the tritest political jokes is how obsessively candidates invoke small towns, visit diners, pretend to like hunting, etc. But it's not that far from the truth: our electoral system grossly favors rural areas over urban ones, small states over big ones, and ultimately a few key swing states over most other states. I can understand rural voters not wanting to be edged out of the political process. But that doesn't mean they get such an outsized share of it.

We need to scrap the Electoral College, and we need to have nonpartisan redistricting. These should be two pretty easy fixes. But as long as we stay content to have a system that lets politicians fix things the other way, our elections will continue to define absurdity.

2 comments:

  1. Hear hear! With my sophomoric understanding of American government I had an understanding of Gerrymandering, but assumed that as a named and well-known cheat, it was regulated and avoided. A few months ago, through a conservation NGO that is attempting to push some federal legislation, I learned that Washington's 8th district was redrawn to be safely Republican. The Republican now representing that district is (they say) politically beholden to an ex-Senator (Gordon) who helped in the creative sketching. And thus, power is consolidated. Of course, some Democrats in Washington gained safer districts as well, which is to say everyone attempted to blockade themselves against any flicker of democracy.
    After writing this comment the first time, I looked into it a bit more and apparently four old white guys (the members of the commission) are the only ones who get to vote on the redistricting.
    The fact that this process is taking place across the country just blows my mind.

    ReplyDelete
  2. True, though Washington (my home state) is one of a few states that does actually have a bipartisan redistricting commission. The latest round of redistricting in Washington didn't particularly favor either political party, though it was heavily tilted toward protecting incumbents. The 8th district was indeed made safer for the Republicans, but it was balanced out by making the 9th district much safer for Democrats. The 1st district, which did not have an incumbent congressman, was explicitly drawn to be as competitive as possible; it was widely considered to be the truest "toss up" district in 2012.

    There is arguably a problem with protecting incumbents like this, but Washington's districts are a lot fairer and more representative than most states'. I think lots of other states could learn a few things from it.

    ReplyDelete